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Researchers Predict Zika Hot Spots in the U.S.

Threat highest in Southeast, southern Atlantic Coast, and southern California

The Mississippi delta is in the cross-hairs of the Zika virus, according to Saint Louis University researchers. Their study also predicts that the virus, which is spread sexually and by bites from the Aedes aegypti mosquito, is likely to be transmitted in southeastern states, northward along the Atlantic coast, and in southern California.

The study, published online in the American Journal of Public Health, is meant “to enhance Zika prevention methods such as mosquito control, effective prevention message dissemination, and treatment and care preparation, in advance of a Zika epidemic in the contiguous U.S.," said Enbal Shacham, PhD, associate professor of behavioral science and health education at Saint Louis University and the lead author of the study. "We need significant planning and prevention in areas and populations most likely to experience the highest burdens from Zika infection."

Zika poses the most serious threat to unborn babies, who may die or develop devastating birth defects, such as brain damage, after their mothers contract Zika during pregnancy.

Shacham and her collaborators studied 3,108 counties in the U.S. They determined 507 "high risk" areas for Zika transmission based on several factors: the presence of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes; high rates of sexually transmitted infections, which is an established surrogate marker for unprotected sex; number of women of child-bearing age; and an estimate of birth rates for each county.

"Recent reports suggest that the Zika virus can survive within semen for significant amounts of time, and thus, the sexual transmission route of infection may be significantly underestimated," Shacham said. "The sexually transmitted route is also concerning because sexually transmitted infections tend to cluster geographically and occur disproportionately in areas with higher concentrated disadvantage."

About 80% of those who contract Zika have no symptoms, which means they may engage in sexual activity without any indication they are at risk of transmitting the virus, she added.

It is unclear if sexual transmission of Zika occurs 100% of the time; therefore, the researchers projected three different models of transmission risk: 70%, 85%, and 100% risk based on the data-driven model. Assuming that Zika is transmitted in 70% of the cases of STIs, the researchers estimate that between 300,000 to 41.7 million people from high-risk counties could be more likely to contract Zika than individuals who live in other counties in the U.S. Of those at potential higher risk, between 3,700 and 632,000 may be pregnant women, the highest at-risk group.

"Our results also show that complications from the Zika virus are likely to overlap with impoverished counties with large minority populations where resources are more likely to be scarce to combat a large-scale Zika virus outbreak," Shacham said.

Source: St. Louis University; March 27, 2017.

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