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Chronic Heart Failure Market Set to Triple by 2023

Launch of valsartan/sacubitril combo will drive growth

Decision Resources Group, a health care research firm located in Burlington, Mass., finds that the chronic heart failure (CHF) market will grow from approximately $2.9 billion in 2013 to $8.9 billion in 2023. This growth will largely be driven by the launch of LCZ-696 (valsartan/sacubitril, Novartis), a first-in-class dual angiotensin II receptor antagonist (AIIRA)/neprilysin inhibitor.

LCZ-696 is expected to reach the CHF market in the second half of 2015 and could add nearly $4 billion in annual sales by 2023, the report says. Moreover, the drug has the potential to revolutionize the CHF treatment paradigm by seeking to displace well-established first-line therapies, i.e., angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and AIIRAs.

However, the report notes that LCZ-696 will face a number of hurdles in its uptake, the biggest of which may be its expected high price in comparison with that of generically available CHF agents.

Two new biologic vasodilators will launch in the acute heart failure (AHF) market during the 10-year forecast period. Serelaxin (Novartis) and ularitide (Cardiorentis) could contribute more than $2.6 billion to the AHF market in 2023, the report notes.

“Previous R&D efforts in the AHF segment have been plagued by high attrition rates,” said analyst Joseph Dwyer, PhD. “This has resulted in a highly genericized market in which no new therapies have launched since 2002. Serelaxin and ularitide are poised to fulfill a number of unmet needs in AHF and have the potential to greatly expand this market.”

Several therapies with an eclectic mix of mechanisms of action will also launch for CHF during the 10-year forecast period. These treatments include aliskiren (Tekturna/Rasilez, Novartis); finerenone (BAY-94-8862, Bayer); allogeneic mesenchymal precursor cells (CEP-41750, Teva/Mesoblast), recombinant gene therapy (Mydicar, Celladon), and rivaroxaban (Xarelto, Bayer). Collectively, these agents could contribute sales of nearly $2 billion in the U.S., Europe, and Japan in 2023, according to the report.

The report also expects the heart rate-reducing agent ivabradine (Amgen) to become commercially available in the U.S. during the forecast period.

Source: Decision Resources Group; October 2, 2014.

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