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Report: Continued Uptake of Oral Nucleoside/Nucleotide Analogues Expected to Drive Growth of U.S. Hepatitis B Markets

However, entry of generics will hinder growth beginning in 2015 (Jan. 3)

Decision Resources, a research and advisory firm based in Burlington, Mass., finds that, from 2011 to 2021, growth in the hepatitis B virus (HBV) drug market will be driven by continued uptake of oral nucleoside/nucleotide analogues, such as entecavir (Baraclude, Bristol-Myers Squibb) and tenofovir (Viread, Gilead). However, the entry of generic entecavir in the U.S. in 2015 will curtail sales of branded versions of both agents.

“Both Baraclude and Viread, which have a high genetic barrier to viral resistance, will continue to dominate the market for HBV therapies as more patients gain access to them throughout the next ten years,” said market analyst Benjamin Guikema, PhD. “Generic entry will drive even more prescriptions of entecavir and further raise the bar for drug developers in HBV.”

The company also predicts that the launch of pegylated interferon (peg-IFN) lambda-1a (Bristol-Myers Squibb/ZymoGenetics) in 2017 will help to slow the decline spurred by the entry of generics in the HBV market. Prescribing physicians are expected to favor peg-IFN lambda-1a for patients who would otherwise receive an interferon alpha-based therapy and for additional patient populations because of more favorable tolerability compared with currently available interferons.

“In addition to the anticipated launch of a prophylactic vaccine, Dynavax’s Heplisav, pegylated interferon lambda-1a will be the only emerging therapy for HBV over the next ten years,” Guikema said. “But, because of patient preference for oral therapies, we do not expect widespread uptake.”

Source: Decision Resources; January 3, 2013.

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