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Diabetes Drug Market Expected to Double Over Next Decade
Decision Resources, a research firm located in Burlington, Mass., has predicted that the type 2 diabetes drug market will nearly double over the next decade, increasing from $26 billion in 2011 to almost $50 billion in 2021 in the U.S., the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Japan. The main factors fueling this growth will be a growing drug-treated patient population and a large pipeline of products expected to launch during this period.
The company reports that the dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPP-IV) inhibitor drug class will continue to expand, given the increasing use of these agents in the second-line setting. Sitagliptin (Januvia/Xelevia, Merck) will remain the leading agent in the class. The glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist class will also grow, with major-market sales predicted to reach nearly $8 billion by 2021. These agents are expensive and require injections, but they have a positive efficacy profile and can elicit weight loss, the company said.
In addition, sodium glucose transporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors — notably dapagliflozin (AstraZeneca/Bristol-Myers Squibb) and canagliflozin (Johnson & Johnson) — are expected to influence the treatment paradigm for type 2 diabetes. It is anticipated that dapagliflozin will launch in Europe in late 2012.
Interviewed thought leaders considered the SGLT-2 inhibitors to be the most interesting agents that will emerge during the forecast period, based on their weight-loss efficacy, versatility, and low risk of hypoglycemia.
The survey findings also indicated that use of the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-gamma (PPAR-gamma) agonist class will continue to decline through 2021, given the safety issues surrounding both rosiglitazone (Avandia, GlaxoSmithKline) and pioglitazone (Actos, Takeda), as well as the generic erosion of pioglitazone.
Source: Decision Resources, October 15, 2012.