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Research Firm Predicts Uptake of Only Three New Breast Cancer Drugs Through 2021

But prognosis for advanced disease is expected to improve (Aug. 16)

Decision Resources, based in Burlington, Mass., reported on August 16 that, despite a busy pipeline, growth in the breast cancer market will be driven by only three new drugs through 2021. The drugs are Novartis’s Afinitor (everolimus) and Roche/Genentech’s Perjeta (pertuzumab) and trastuzumab-DM1 (T-DM1).

Decision Resources is a research and advisory firm for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues.

The company estimates that, having secured regulatory approval in both the U.S. and Europe for later-line hormone-receptor–positive breast cancer in July 2012, Afinitor’s sales in this setting will exceed $1 billion.

Moreover, following the FDA’s approval of Perjeta in combination with trastuzumab and docetaxel (Sanofi’s Taxotere, generics) for first-line advanced HER2-positive breast cancer in June 2012, ongoing clinical development of the drug will result in heavy sales by 2021.

T-DM1 has demonstrated impressive results in later-line treatment of HER2-positive breast cancer, and Decision Resources anticipates that the agent will be approved in this setting in 2013, and will move into earlier treatment settings through 2021.

In 2011, Roche/Genentech/Chugai’s Herceptin (trastuzumab) earned $3.4 billion across the major markets, making it the best-selling breast cancer drug in the U.S., Europe, and Japan.

Decision Resources notes that, in comparison with many other forms of cancer, the prognosis for advanced breast cancer is good, with the mean life expectancy following the development of advanced disease estimated to be more than 3 years in 2011. If historical trends in survival continue, the company says, an additional 6 months will be added to this figure in 2021, thus extending the duration of drug-treatable advanced disease by almost 20% over this 10-year period.

For more information, visit the Decision Resources Web site.

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