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Report: New Oral Anticoagulants Will Drive Growth in Atrial Fibrillation Drug Market

Eliquis forecast to be leading anticoagulant (December 19)

Decision Resources, a research and advisory firm for pharmaceutical and health care issues, finds that the atrial fibrillation drug market will experience continued growth through the rest of the decade, increasing from $3.4 billion in 2012 to $8.6 billion in 2020 in the U.S., Europe, and Japan.

However, the entry of generic Pradaxa (dabigatran etexilate mesylate, Boehringer Ingelheim) and Xarelto (rivaroxaban, Bayer/Janssen) will result in contraction of the atrial fibrillation market in the latter part of the 2012–2022 forecast period, with the market contracting to $8.1 billion in 2022.

The report also finds that new oral anticoagulants developed for the prevention of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation will continue to drive market growth, accounting for approximately 70% of market share in 2022.

Despite a slow start after its 2013 launch, Eliquis (apixaban, Bristol-Myers Squibb/Pfizer) is expected to be the sales-leading anticoagulant and will garner more than $2.7 billion in 2022. The use of new anticoagulants will result in a steep decline in sales of warfarin (Coumadin, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and generics) and other currently available vitamin K antagonists. The anticipated launch of tecarfarin (Armetheon) as an anticoagulant therapy for patients with atrial fibrillation and mechanical heart valves in the U.S. will see vitamin K antagonists remain a notable presence in the atrial fibrillation drug market, the report predicts.

The report also predicts that the oral cardioversion agent vanoxerine (ChanRx) will become the sales-leading antiarrhythmic drug during the forecast period, despite an expected launch in 2018. The drug’s efficacy, combined with its favorable safety profile, will ensure strong uptake both as a cardioversion agent and as a “pill-in-the-pocket” therapy, the report says.

“Despite initial poor uptake following its launch, we forecast that Eliquis will become the market leader owing to its superior clinical trial data. Eliquis remains the only agent to demonstrate increased efficacy and lower rates of major bleeding versus warfarin,” said analyst Eamonn O'Connor, PhD. “Continued strong uptake of Bayer/Janssen’s Xarelto, due largely to its once-daily dosing, will see Xarelto become the second best-selling agent, with peak-year sales in excess of $2 billion prior to its patent expiration in the United States in 2021.”

Source: Decision Resources; December 19, 2013.

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