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Report: Sales of Antiretroviral Drugs for HIV Will Decrease Slightly Over Next Decade

Key antiretroviral treatments face generic erosion (December 4)

Decision Resources, a research and advisory firm for pharmaceutical and health care issues, finds that major-market sales of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection will decrease marginally over the next decade, from an estimated $13.4 billion in 2012 to $13.1 billion in 2022 in the U.S., Europe, and Japan.

The report finds that the primary factor constraining the HIV therapy market is the generic erosion of numerous key ARV drugs, such as efavirenz (Sustiva, Bristol-Myers Squibb); tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) (Viread, Gilead), atazanavir (Reyataz, Bristol-Myers Squibb), darunavir (Prezista, Janssen), emtricitabine/TDF (Truvada, Gilead), and efavirenz/emtricitabine/TDF (Atripla, Gilead/Bristol-Myers Squibb).

The increasing availability of generics in cost-constrained markets will inhibit the uptake of new, higher-priced agents and will be responsible for decreased ARV sales in major pharmaceutical markets, the report predicts. Notably, all three active pharmaceutical agents in the 2012 sales leader, the single-tablet regimen (STR) Atripla, will lose patent protection during the 2012–2022 forecast period, paving the way for generic STR prescribing in the major markets.

A key driver of sales growth in the HIV market is the increasing uptake of new, premium-priced agents, including integrase inhibitors and integrase inhibitor-based STRs. The diagnosis of HIV infection will also increase owing to broadening screening efforts and an expansion of the treatment-eligible population as a result of treatment guidelines urging treatment for HIV patients irrespective of CD4 cell levels, particularly in the U.S.

The findings also indicate that, of the emerging therapies, the recently launched integrase inhibitor dolutegravir (Tivicay, ViiV) is best poised for commercial success during the 2012–2022 forecast period. Dolutegravir is already being marketed as a stand-alone product that can be used with different nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) backbone regimens in the U.S.

Source: Decision Resources; December 4, 2013.

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