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Report: Type 2 Diabetes Market Will Nearly Double by 2022

DPP-IV inhibitors expected to remain leading drug class (October 16)

Decision Resources, a research and advisory firm located in Burlington, Mass., finds that the type 2 diabetes market will nearly double over the next decade, increasing from $27 billion in sales in 2012 to $47 billion in 2022 in the U.S., Europe, and Japan. The main factors fueling this growth are a continued increase in the drug-treated patient population and increased use of both currently available drugs and soon-to-launch emerging branded agents during this period.

The report also finds that the market-leading dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPP-IV) inhibitor drug class, led by first-in-class sitagliptin (Januvia, Merck), will continue to increase its market-leading position with increasing use in the second-line setting. Sales of DPP-IV inhibitors are expected to peak at almost $14 billion before the first generic entrant of the class (saxagliptin [Onglyza, Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca]) in 2021. The entry of generic sitagliptin in 2022 will lead to significant sales erosion of DPP-IV inhibitors, but not enough to threaten their market-leading position through 2022.

Moreover, the report finds that sodium/glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors will be the fastest-growing drug class throughout the forecast period, largely driven by strong uptake of canagliflozin (Invokana, Johnson & Johnson) and dapagliflozin (Forxiga, AstraZeneca/Bristol-Myers Squibb).

“The SGLT-2 inhibitors have experienced stronger than expected uptake, particularly in the U.S., following Invokana’s launch,” said analyst Eamonn O'Connor, PhD. “Interviewed experts are enthusiastic about the drug’s unique mechanism of action and additional weight-loss mechanisms.”

Source: PR Newswire; October 16, 2013.

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