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Report: Ulcerative Colitis Drug Market Will Increase From $2.1 Billion in 2012 to $3.6 Billion in 2022

Market growth driven by uptake of Humira, Simponi, vedolizumab, and tofacitinib (October 9)

Decision Resources, a research and advisory firm located in Burlington, Mass., finds that the ulcerative colitis drug market will increase from $2.1 billion in 2012 to $3.6 billion in 2022 in the U.S., Europe, and Japan.

The uptake of two premium-priced tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) inhibitors — Humira (adalimumab, AbbVie/Eisai) and Simponi (golimumab, Janssen/Merck) — and of two new therapies — the cell adhesion molecule (CAM) inhibitor vedolizumab (Takeda) and the oral Janus-activated kinase inhibitor tofacitinib (Pfizer) — is expected to drive growth during this period, accounting for approximately half of the market share in 2022.

The report forecasts that increased physician acceptance of TNF-alpha inhibitors for the treatment of moderate-to-severe disease and patient preference for convenient subcutaneous administration will fuel the uptake of the newer TNF-alpha inhibitors Humira and Simponi.

In particular, Simponi — approved for the treatment of ulcerative colitis in the U.S. in 2013 — will challenge Remicade (intravenous infliximab, Janssen/Merck) as the most frequently prescribed agent in the TNF-alpha inhibitor class, owing to its perceived greater efficacy than that of Humira in separate phase III trials and favorable gastroenterologist opinion. However, Remicade will remain the patient-share leader among the TNF-alpha inhibitors, based on its well-established efficacy. Simponi is expected to overtake Remicade as the sales leader in 2019, based largely on the former’s premium price and approved high dosing in ulcerative colitis.

The launches of two promising premium-priced agents, vedolizumab and tofacitinib, in 2014 and 2017, respectively, will contribute to increasing sales over the next 10 years, gaining use initially in the TNF-refractory population primarily, the report predicts.

Toward the end of the forecast period, it is expected that vedolizumab will begin to overtake adalimumab as gastroenterologists move to another drug class after trying up to two TNF-alpha inhibitors. Tofacitinib will challenge vedolizumab’s use upon its later entry into the market; however, its use will likely not overtake that of vedolizumab, based on anticipated confirmation of vedolizumab’s promising efficacy in phase III trials by the time of tofacitinib’s launch, and its perceived better safety profile.

Source: Decision Resources; October 9, 2013.

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