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Report: Multiple Sclerosis Market Will Grow 10% Annually Through 2018

Disease-modifying alternatives will further complicate complex treatment algorithm (July 25)

Decision Resources, a research and advisory firm located in Burlington, Mass., finds that the market for disease-modifying multiple sclerosis (MS) therapies will expand at an annual rate of 10% through 2018, peaking at nearly $21 billion in that year. Market growth will be driven by the launch of at least six premium-priced disease-modifying therapies and by price increases in the U.S. market.

Among the new entrants, dimethyl fumarate (Tecfidera, Biogen Idec) is expected to have the greatest clinical and commercial success and is expected to capture more than $4 billion in 2018 sales in the U.S., Europe, and Japan.

The report also finds that the coming years will usher in a transformative era as the burgeoning number of treatment options fragment and further complicate an already complex treatment algorithm. Recent launches of additional oral agents, including dimethyl fumarate and teriflunomide (Aubagio, Genzyme), will be followed by the emergence of more-convenient reformulations of platform injectables and three highly efficacious monoclonal antibodies — alemtuzumab (Lemtrada, Genzyme/Bayer HealthCare), ocrelizumab (Roche/Genentech), and daclizumab (Biogen Idec/AbbVie).

Moreover, natalizumab (Tysabri, Biogen Idec) will remain a valued treatment option thanks to risk stratification protocols for progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, which permit the selection of best-fit candidates and mark an important step in tailoring treatment choice in MS.

The report also finds that a significant commercial milestone in the MS market will be the launch of the first generic disease-modifying drugs, in particular generic oral therapies, expected by the second half of the 2012–2022 forecast period. Lesser impact is expected from biosimilar interferon-betas, assuming such products reach the market within the next decade. In total, the availability of lower-cost alternatives is projected to cause the MS market to contract by 3% annually from 2018 to 2022.

“The MS market stands at the beginning of a fundamental restructuring,” said analyst Georgiana L. Kuhlmann. “Given the need for enhanced therapeutic choice to enable individualized treatment decisions, we expect each new therapy can establish its own clinical niche. Also of particular interest is the resurgence of industry focus on developing much-needed treatments for progressive forms of MS, which could produce landmark approvals for this underserved patient population.”

Source: Decision Resources; July 25, 2013.

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